Predictions Regarding the Racial Climate of the United States in the Year 2050

As most honest statisticians confess, future predictions are notoriously difficult to make because no one can anticipate or satisfactorily gauge all potential dynamics that might shape the future. Nevertheless, researchers believe that current data allows for a reasonably accurate portrait of what the United States will look like in the middle of the twenty-first century as far as ethnic composition is concerned. The issues of immigration and multiethnic marriages are two factors that will influence the racial composition of the nation in 2050.

            By 2050, population experts predict that Anglos will comprise only 50 percent of the nation.[1] At one time, the percentage of Anglos in the United States was roughly 90 percent, but this number progressively has diminished as various minority populations have settled in the country. This trend has resulted in what some experts refer to as the “browning of America.”[2] Furthermore, at the current rate of immigration, by the year 2050, “36 million children in the United States will be descendants of immigrants who arrived after 2005.”[3] This change in ethnic composition is uncharted territory for the United States since Anglos always have been the majority population since the establishment of the English colonies in the 1600s.

            If various ethnic groups continue to intermingle at present rates, at the mid-century point, 20 percent of the United States will be multiethnic.[4] Since racial classifications of America’s past (e.g., mulatto, quadroon, and octoroon) no longer exist, it is not unreasonable to assume that at least some of the ethnic categories of the future may look different than they do today.[5] Regardless of how future Americans understand the concept of ethnicity, a plethora of ethnic groups, along with millions of multiethnic people, will play a significant role in shaping and defining ethnic categories.

            Three observations are in order:

1. Since the United States has a long history of bitter racial strife, ethnic discord almost certainly will continue if we allow it. At the moment, racial divisions are on the rise, and the addition of large numbers of other people groups likely will compound this issue.
2. Ethnic discord does not have to continue if we deal with our present issues in a concrete and practical manner. One challenge is that as a country we have never come to grips with our past racial sins, and few productive conversations occur in the present.
3. God wants ethnic groups to enjoy harmony. As the early Christians began to understand the unity that they had in Christ, they learned the importance of dismantling barriers that existed between them. The New Testament bears witness to some of the challenges they endured, but it also shows how they practically overcame these issues.

While a number of factors suggest that racial challenges will persist in the future, this prediction does not have to be a reality. That depends on if we’re content to remain in our puddles of tribalism, or if we’re ready to join together with one another in the big pond.

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[1] Simon Cheng and Brian Powell, “Under and Beyond Constraints: Resource Allocation to Young Children from Biracial Families,” American Journal of Sociology 112.4 (January 2007): 1045.

[2] Cf. James H. Johnson Jr., Walter C. Farrell Jr., and Chandra Guinn “Immigration Reform and the Browning of America: Tensions, Conflicts, and Community Instability in Metropolitan Los Angles,” International Migration Review 31.4 (Winter 1997): 1055-95; Kathryn T. Gines, “Introduction: Critical Philosophy of Race Beyond Black/White Binary,” Critical Philosophy of Race 1.1 (2013): 28-37.

[3] Sandra Hughes-Hassel and Ernie J. Cox, “Inside Board Books: Representation of People of Color,” Library Quarterly: Information, Community, Policy 80.3 (July 2010): 213.

[4] Jennifer Lee and Frank D. Bean, “America’s Changing Color Lines: Immigration, Race/Ethnicity, and Multiracial Identification,” Annual Review of Sociology 30 (2004):  236.

[5] Jennifer Hochschild and Vesla Mae Weaver, “‘There’s No One as Irish as Barack O’Bama’: The Policy and Politics of American Multiracialism,” Perspectives on Politics 8.3 (September 2010): 737.